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Trump is Mr Brexit...So Falls the Dollar

| Tuesday, August 30th, 2016

Highlights

  • Over two thirds (70%) of 18-34 year olds are worried for the value of the US dollar should Donald Trump win the election
  • Half (50%) of Americans aged 55+ are worried for the value of the US dollar should Donald Trump win the election.
  • Our Brexit report in May of 2016 that included asking Britons about their worry for the pound depending on referendum results had a similar response - with more than half (56%) of those aged 25-34 concerned for the value of the pound

FXcompared Intelligence recently surveyed American adults, asking if they are worried a Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton presidency may reduce the value of the dollar. The results showed a country almost equally concerned with both candidates’ potential presidency, with 58% of respondents concerned about the value of the US dollar should Donald Trump win, and 60% concerned for the US dollar should Hillary Clinton win the election.

More Republicans (87%) are worried about the value of the US dollar should Hillary Clinton be elected. A majority of Democrats (82%) are concerned for the value of the US dollar should Donald Trump be elected. Registered Independents are more worried for a Clinton presidency (68%) than a Trump presidency (54%).

Almost half (49%) of Northeast respondents are concerned that the US dollar will decrease in value with a Trump presidency, but two-thirds (67%) are worried about the US dollar should Hillary Clinton become president. The Midwest, South and the West Coast’s results showed almost equal concern for each candidate.

Chart 1: Percent of Americans worried about what a Trump or Clinton presidency would do to the value of the USD
Chart Trump Clinton Value of US Dollar

Notably, over two thirds (70%) of those aged 18-34, more commonly referred to as the Millennial generation, are concerned for the value of the US dollar if Donald Trump becomes the next American president. Conversely, nearly two thirds (63%) of Americans aged 55+ are worried for the value of the US dollar should Hillary Clinton become President.

Chart 2: Percent of Americans in different age groups worried about what Trump presidency would do to the value of the USD
Chart of Trump Value of Dollar by Age Group


Additional Data Tables:

“In November voters will vote in the US Presidential Election. To what extent, if at all, would you be worried about what the outcome of the election may do to reduce the value of the US dollar if any of the candidates below became President? Please select one option on each row."
Table 1: Donald Trump - Net Worried/Not Worried
% Total % Male % Female

Net: worried

58%

53%

63%

I would be very worried

45%

41%

48%

I would be slightly worried

13%

12%

14%

I would not be very worried

18%

18%

18%

I would not be worried at all

24%

28%

19%

Net: not worried

42%

47%

37%

Table 2: Hillary Clinton - Net Worried/Not Worried

% Total % Male % Female

Net: worried

60%

63%

56%

I would be very worried

42%

43%

41%

I would be slightly worried

18%

20%

15%

I would not be very worried

19%

15%

23%

I would not be worried at all

21%

22%

20%

Net: not worried

40%

37%

44%

Note: Methodology shown at the end of this report

Brexit Report Comparison

The results for the US suggest a similar divide as seen in the United Kingdom over Brexit with the decision to leave the European Union. FXcompared Intelligence surveyed UK adults in May of 2016 and February 2016 asking whether they were concerned that the value of the pound will be affected by Brexit.

" On 23rd June voters will be asked whether they would like the UK to remain in the European Union, or whether to leave. If a majority of voters decided to vote for the UK leaving the EU, to what extent, if at all, would you be worried about what this outcome may do to the value of the pound?"


Table 3: Overall Sentiment from UK Brexit Reports
% May 2016 % Feb 2016

NET: Worried (Very worried + Fairly worried)

46

55

Very worried

16

19

Fairly worried

30

36

Not very worried

22

23

Not at all worried

28

20

Don't know

4

1

NET: Not worried (Not very worried Not at all worried)

50

44

More than half of respondents aged 25-34 (56%) expressed concerned for the value of the pound following Brexit, whereas only a third (35%) of respondents aged 65+ were concerned for the value of the pound should Brexit occur. The British pound plummeted to historic lows following the announcement that the United Kingdom would leave the European Union. Though the pound has recovered, it is still suffering from great volatility as the uncertainty of the impact of Brexit.

Conclusion

Once again, we are seeing Millennials and Baby Boomers disagreeing over what would be best for their country. We may be witnessing a generational divide similar to that seen in the United Kingdom over Brexit, especially with the concerns of the younger generation, which has been reflected in our research

Methodology

The US poll within the report was undertaken by YouGov on behalf of FXcompared, and 1,000 American adults were interviewed online on 18th-20th July 2016. Data was weighted to be representative of the American public by age, gender, race, education level and political affiliation.

The UK was collected ComRes who interviewed 1,004 adults by telephone between 20-22 May 2016 and ComRes interviewed 1,002 GB adults via telephone between 26th and 28th February 2016. Data were weighted to be representative of the British public by age, gender and region.

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